🔗 Share this article Moving from Reluctant Admiration to Unease: Russia Weighs Up the Ousting of Venezuela's Leader. A shock assault on the capital in the dead of night, ending with the capture of the country's president. By the next morning, the intervening power declares its plan to rule indefinitely. That was the scenario Russia's president envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York. Public Fury, Private Calculations In public, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of international law and a worrying development. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Moscow itself once planned, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition. “The operation was carried out with precision,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was supposed to proceed: swift, decisive and conclusive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be engaged in combat for four years.” These observations have fed a atmosphere of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly war. Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how audacious the US intervention seemed. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote. Allies in Decline For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – hoping to forging a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington. Yet despite Russia's foreign minister pledging support for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would come to his rescue. Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other important partners fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence. “For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into little choice but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.” The Ukraine Priority Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with the US administration on that issue far outweighs the destiny of Caracas. “Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” the analyst concluded. Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks Nevertheless, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia. This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025. Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever. A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams. “If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.” A Dark Optimism Still, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more nakedly power-based world order – one where might, rather than rules, determines results. “Team Trump is tough and cynical in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”
A shock assault on the capital in the dead of night, ending with the capture of the country's president. By the next morning, the intervening power declares its plan to rule indefinitely. That was the scenario Russia's president envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York. Public Fury, Private Calculations In public, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of international law and a worrying development. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Moscow itself once planned, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition. “The operation was carried out with precision,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was supposed to proceed: swift, decisive and conclusive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be engaged in combat for four years.” These observations have fed a atmosphere of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly war. Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how audacious the US intervention seemed. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote. Allies in Decline For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – hoping to forging a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington. Yet despite Russia's foreign minister pledging support for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would come to his rescue. Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other important partners fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence. “For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into little choice but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.” The Ukraine Priority Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with the US administration on that issue far outweighs the destiny of Caracas. “Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” the analyst concluded. Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks Nevertheless, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia. This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025. Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever. A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams. “If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.” A Dark Optimism Still, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more nakedly power-based world order – one where might, rather than rules, determines results. “Team Trump is tough and cynical in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”